Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 54272.290976 57520.806216 60777.203740 64283.777006 67950.378974 71668.474139 75721.165854
2024-10-06 49536.061163 54529.190019 59682.902400 65391.293924 71528.385049 77919.423910 85069.435415
2024-10-13 45866.638484 52031.079628 58542.003227 65913.662404 74009.959436 82613.256497 92428.269848
2024-10-20 42732.723030 49730.299833 57266.384776 65956.735802 75671.577035 86167.153130 98332.772911
2024-10-27 40009.862063 47630.993419 55981.080450 65766.286946 76874.473789 89048.010530 103351.884241
2024-11-03 38450.678279 46696.115356 55867.070125 66765.197881 79301.510530 93208.889813 109739.955646
2024-11-10 36965.652500 45730.248197 55615.003984 67512.711295 81364.919060 96903.062405 115565.893134
2024-11-17 35438.821157 44617.098456 55105.221508 67881.876465 82925.852817 99975.016863 120650.657383
2024-11-24 33867.129270 43363.940312 54353.524631 67895.339460 84011.270293 102452.923473 125019.963507
2024-12-01 32606.051442 42416.753156 53904.240859 68211.488614 85407.483623 105261.475990 129758.872623
2024-12-08 31313.667029 41369.496696 53279.529875 68266.648389 86451.582195 107627.264414 133962.309156
2024-12-15 30590.333715 40984.758590 53424.053534 69223.129620 88557.126367 111242.994164 139654.745945
2024-12-22 29376.978815 39956.189700 52757.788418 69178.503120 89455.320379 113439.519290 143699.668152
2024-12-29 28801.604945 39708.203640 53037.970572 70287.767735 91759.914441 117339.484499 149823.215923
2025-01-05 27997.010677 39132.427665 52879.317140 70827.453471 93348.981665 120369.842464 154906.577583
2025-01-12 27015.342884 38289.181820 52348.988989 70870.199663 94298.435333 122606.940564 159022.950018
2025-01-19 25983.301711 37341.629476 51650.762897 70667.876959 94915.069260 124417.903618 162610.316099
2025-01-26 25562.726882 37182.566988 51949.750291 71725.702331 97112.692600 128186.875375 168630.203554
2025-02-02 25053.976929 36884.634067 52051.563049 72517.252443 98967.467170 131533.986214 174144.484323
2025-02-09 24406.441082 36375.727323 51857.190091 72908.136199 100300.536891 134227.184994 178853.557154
2025-02-16 23639.323817 35677.811942 51390.303206 72922.389803 101134.408630 136285.186008 182769.192830
2025-02-23 23037.111006 35186.030523 51179.068821 73257.123187 102372.205762 138851.369477 187333.206620
2025-03-02 22356.821297 34563.431899 50772.583107 73315.523610 103237.831432 140939.128972 191295.897710